What does Team Trump say about the Unified Framework tax outline? Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insists it would definitely cut the deficit. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget figures it would reduce tax revenue by $2.2 trillion over 10 years. National Economic Council director Gary Cohn says he “cannot guarantee” that taxes will not go up for middle-income households but insists that “the wealthy are not getting a tax cut under our plan.” Most independent analysts disagree with him too.

In other developments… It would appear that President Trump and his heirs would stand to save about $1 billion in taxes under his proposal, according to an analysis by The New York Times. That’s because the framework would repeal the estate tax and alternative minimum tax. And, soon after Mnuchin claimed that workers would benefit the most from a corporate income tax cut, Treasury removed from its website a staff analysis that found that workers pay 18 percent of the tax while owners of capital pay 82 percent.

Do people even want corporate tax cuts? Vanessa Williamson of the Brookings Institution says not especially. Her research indicates that “corporate tax breaks are among the least popular things the government can do, and most Americans think wealthy people should be paying more, not less. More tax cuts for very rich people are back without popular demand.” For what it’s worth: Those very rich people, according to some of their financial advisers, are skeptical the cuts will materialize.

On Trump’s tax plan and the budget…  The Center for American Progress explains why “reconciliation instructions in the budget resolution will test whether rhetorical support for revenue-neutral tax reform translates into a real commitment to this policy goal.” In a press conference yesterday, Cohn insisted that the tax plan would be financed easily with a 1 percent increase in economic growth. 

What do fiscal conservatives say? House Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark Walker says concern for budget deficits can blow with the wind: “It’s a great talking point when you have an administration that’s Democrat-led. It’s a little different now that Republicans have both houses and the administration.”

What will CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett say? The chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers will discuss tax reform and the nation’s fiscal outlook at TPC’s inaugural Distinguished Speaker Series on October 5 at 9:00 am. TPC will host in collaboration with the Tax Foundation.

Also next week: budget votes. House Budget Committee Chair Diane Black says the House will vote on a budget resolution on Thursday, October 5. The Senate Budget Committee also expects to mark up its full budget, with a floor vote expected two weeks later.

How is Georgia’s new vehicle registration tax faring? The title tax replaced the state’s previous ad valorem sales tax in 2013. The new system leveled a one-time tax on vehicle purchases, leases, and out-of-state vehicle registrations. The Fiscal Research Center at Georgia State University analyzed the levy, and found revenues grew by 19 percent from 2014 through 2016. 

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