The Bush Administration's budget includes a chapter entitled "The Real Fiscal Danger," which highlights the projected imbalances in Social Security and Medicare. Ironically, the budget does not include any specific steps to eliminate or even reduce those imbalances. It does, however, propose...

Events leading up to the enactment of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) highlighted the role of tax provisions that expire at a given date, which are commonly known as "sunsets." This article examines trends in the magnitude and nature of sunsets, and discusses...

In recent years, the largest budgetary decisions of Congress have been concentrated in two areas: tax cuts and expansions in health care, particularly Medicare. Given all the rhetoric that surfaced during the tax cut debate, it might be worthwhile to see how consistently these arguments have...

The CBO's new budget update provides the opportunity to reassess fiscal prospects and reconsider policy options. This paper examines the baseline CBO projections and adjusts the official data in ways that we believe more accurately reflect the current trajectory of tax and spending policies and...

The Congressional Budget Office's midyear update of the economic and budget outlook, released in late August, provides an opportunity to glean new perspectives on the fiscal status of the federal government. In a prior article, we adjusted the baseline projections to provide more appropriate...

In this article from U.S. Fixed Income Monthly, Rudy Penner argues that the political response today to the deteriorating budget situation is much different from the 1980s. In the 1980s and early 1990s, Congress worked vigorously to restore fiscal responsibility. There is little evidence...

The Congressional Budget Office (2004) has released new baseline budget projections, covering fiscal years 2005-2014. This article examines the baseline CBO projections, adjusts the official data in ways that more accurately reflect the current trajectory of tax and spending policies, and...

When federal outlays exceed tax receipts, the government typically borrows money from domestic or foreign creditors. When national saving is low relative to national investment, government debt is more likely to be purchased by foreigners. The share of public debt held by foreigners rose from 15...

Much of the discussion over President Bush's 2004 submission of a proposed budget for fiscal year 2005 and beyond has focused on what it is not. It is not an agenda for major reform. It is not a budget that Congress appears to take seriously, especially given the number of days it is scheduled...

On February 2, the Bush administration released its budget proposals for fiscal years 2005-2009. This article provides initial analysis of the budget, with several interesting conclusions.