Toward one finish line: Senators aim to wrap up infrastructure work this weekend. There had been talk of passing the $1 trillion bill last night, but tomorrow is more likely. Holding up the vote: An official score from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was not released until yesterday afternoon. CBO estimates that the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act “would decrease direct spending by $110 billion, increase revenues by $50 billion, and increase discretionary spending by $415 billion. On net, the legislation would add $256 billion to projected deficits over that period.” The Washington Post reports budget experts suggest that the deficit may grow by an additional $90 billion due to new “contract authority” over five years. As many as 20 Republicans may back the bill, at some point soon. 

Revving engines for another race: That $3.5 trillion spending bill. Budget reconciliation instructions are likely to assume that the bill will add hundreds of billions of dollars to deficits over the next decade, increasing spending allowances to many authorizing committees. Net deficits may range between $500 billion to $1 trillion. Top Democrats had promised that the entirety of the bill would be paid for, but neither the “economic growth dividend” nor additional revenue collected through better-funded IRS enforcement will likely count according to congressional scoring rules. Will lawmakers find $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion in necessary offsets?

With a game of chicken? Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell repeated his warning that if Democrats insist on passing a budget reconciliation without spending reforms, Republicans will block any subsequent effort by Democrats to increase the debt limit under regular legislative order. Politico reported that Democrats are not likely to include a debt ceiling increase in their budget framework. Rather, they plan to force Republicans to negotiate as both parties approach a government shutdown deadline of September 30.

And a different run for the money… Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden and Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse introduced legislation yesterday to repeal the tax break for carried interest. Current law allows private equity fund managers to pay lower tax rates on their earnings. Their bill would also prevent those fund managers from deferring tax payments on those earnings. The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates that the measure could raise $63 billion over ten years. 

In India: Hitting the brakes on a retrospective tax. The government is willing to scrap a law that taxes companies retrospectively and refund disputed taxes paid. India is currently in the midst of multi-billion dollar tax disputes with Cairn Energy and Vodafone over the retrospective tax. In 2012, India passed a law that allowed its tax authorities to make retroactive claims on overseas corporate deals. Under the government’s proposal, taxes on the indirect transfer of Indian assets before May 2012 will be nullified if companies drop their lawsuits and claim no damages.

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