TPC estimates an increase in itemizers under the 2025 reconciliation act. TPC estimates that another 5 million taxpayers will claim itemized deductions in 2025 when filing their tax returns due to the reconciliation act known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Overall, about 23 million taxpayers are expected to itemize in 2025, or roughly 12 percent of all tax units. The increase results largely from the temporary $40,000 limit on state and local tax (SALT) deductions effective as of 2025. That share will grow to about 14 percent in 2029, but will then drop to 11 percent when the higher SALT limit is scheduled to expire and return to $10,000.
Congress nears deadline for rescissions. President Donald Trump is pushing Congress to pass a bill by the end of this week that would rescind $9 billion in federal funds. The legislation would cut funding for USAID and public broadcasting.
Talk of a second reconciliation bill cools for now. Less than two weeks after enacting the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), lawmakers and analysts are skeptical Congress will pursue another reconciliation bill this year. TaxNotes reports some Republican leaders remain open to a second package—possibly addressing technical corrections or spending reforms—but fatigue, limited legislative bandwidth, and lack of pressing deadlines make such a move unlikely in 2025. Still, some experts say the chances could rise in 2026, especially after the midterm elections.
Expanded tax break for startup investors draws attention and critique. An OBBBA provision expands the qualified small business stock (QSBS) exclusion, allowing more investors to avoid capital gains tax on startup shares. The law raises the asset limit for qualifying companies to $75 million and enables partial tax breaks after just three years of ownership, explains The New York Times. Critics argue the provision is a giveaway to wealthy investors, since 70 percent of QSBS benefits between 2012 and 2022 went to taxpayers earning over $1 million annually. But supporters say the break fuels innovation and early-stage capital.
House Republicans move forward on crypto tax reform. Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) plans to unveil a new tax framework for digital assets. The proposal would create exemptions for small transactions, clarify the tax treatment of crypto mining and staking, and modernize wash sale rules.
Trump announces uniform tariffs for small trading partners. President Trump plans to issue a single letter to over 150 countries, informing them of a uniform tariff rate as part of his broader trade agenda, reports Politico. These countries currently pay a 10 percent baseline tariff set in April, though Trump has suggested that may rise to 15 or 20 percent. Larger trading partners like China, Japan, and the European Union have received individualized letters with negotiated rates. While negotiations continue, the uniform rate approach may face pushback and raises questions about timing and the economic impact.
On the Hill next week: Medicare Advantage in focus. The House Ways and Means Health and Oversight Subcommittees will hold a joint hearing on July 22 to examine the Medicare Advantage program. Lawmakers will consider lessons learned over the past two decades, the implications of its growing enrollment, and opportunities to improve program value and outcomes for beneficiaries.
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