Harris proposes expanded child tax credit and housing assistance. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan on Friday. It addresses the cost of housing, groceries, and raising children, including the expansion of the child tax credit (raising the credit to $6,000 for newborns). Her campaign has not yet detailed how the plan would be paid for or what Harris would do with the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
Trump’s tariffs would raise household taxes and slow imports. TPC’s latest estimates are based on its modeling of tariffs proposed by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Trump’s proposed worldwide 10 percent tariff and a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods would lower average after-tax incomes of US households in 2025 by about $1,800, or 1.8 percent, and reduce imports into the US by about $5.5 trillion, or 15 percent, from 2025–2034. TPC also modeled President Joe Biden’s tariffs enacted in May, finding the more modest and targeted levies would have a very small impact on federal revenue or household incomes.
NBER report: TCJA reduced charitable giving by $16 billion a year. A new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) finds the TCJA reduced charitable giving incentives for about 20 percent of taxpayers by nearly doubling the standard deduction.
There’s more to learn about the tax treatment of Asian American families. TPC’s Bill Gale and Julie Gnany, using newly available data, find that among households in the top 20 percent of the income distribution, Asian American households pay a higher average individual tax rate than white households. While a large proportion of Asian Americans are in the top 20 percent of the distribution, a sizable share is also in the lowest 20 to 40 percent of the distribution. Gale and Gnany add that researchers need more data to conduct deeper analyses.
How much do fines and fees affect families’ well-being? A new research brief by TPC’s Aravind Boddupalli and Susan Nembhard of the Urban Institute’s Justice Policy Center shows how fines and feescan strain the well-being of families already experiencing financial instability and widen income and racial disparities.
Enhanced Premium Tax Credits (PTCs) projected to help over 7 million people afford health insurance in 2025 and reduce the number of uninsured by 4 million. The Urban Institute’s Health Policy Center’s Jessica Banthin, Michael Simpson, and Mohammed Akel, estimate coverage of people under age 65 in 2025 to gauge the impact of PTCs. Congress expanded PTCs in March 2021 as part of the American Rescue Plan Act and extended them through 2025 in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Congress will soon need to decide whether to extend enhanced PTCs again, make them permanent, or let them expire.
Is government “too big?” Is that the right question? TPC’s Gene Steuerle argues the perennial debate over right-sizing government is misplaced, especially when it focuses on deficit-swelling spending increases or tax cuts. Instead, he suggests, “modern governance mainly requires shifting resources—especially those made possible by economic growth—to meet the opportunities, needs, and democratic wishes of today’s and tomorrow’s electorate.”
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