The Congressional Budget Office (2004) has released new baseline budget projections, covering fiscal years 2005-2014. This article examines the baseline CBO projections, adjusts the official data in ways that more accurately reflect the current trajectory of tax and spending policies, and...
In his FY2005 budget, released Monday, President Bush proposes a set of new tax-preferred saving accounts (which were first presented in last year's budget). Under the Administration's proposal, two new types of individual accountscalled Lifetime Saving Accounts (LSAs) and Retirement Saving...
Despite the intensity of the debate over President Bush's tax policies, all political factions seem to agree that tax and spending programs should, on average, distribute economic resources from the rich to the poor. The arguments involve the amount of redistribution; only fringe groups ask...
In 2001, Congress significantly expanded the scope of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA). This paper uses variation in IRA eligibility rules in the 1980s and 1990s to determine whether more widespread access to IRAs undermines traditional employer-sponsored pensions, especially 401(k)-type...
Programs for working families and children are scheduled to shrink rapidly over the next few years, squeezed between rising expenditures on programs for the elderly and declines in tax revenues. This scenario will play out even if only modest defense and international needs are factored into the...
In a tax system with increasing marginal tax rates, the tax increase from a boost to income is at least equal to the tax reduction from a decline in income and is larger if the change in income crosses a marginal tax bracket. As a result, people with volatile incomes may pay more tax than people...
Here's one message from the new "bipartisan" Medicare bill being debated in Congress: low-income elderly people are having a hard time paying for their prescription drugs, so we need...another tax cut for rich people! Today's tax cut for rich people—health savings accounts (HSA)—has been all but...
In this article from U.S. Fixed Income Monthly, Rudy Penner argues that the political response today to the deteriorating budget situation is much different from the 1980s. In the 1980s and early 1990s, Congress worked vigorously to restore fiscal responsibility. There is little evidence...
Tax expenditures refer to the revenue losses attributable to provisions of the federal tax laws that deviate from a "normal" tax on income. Although there are debates over precisely what a tax expenditure is, many exclusions, deductions, credits, preferential rates, and deferrals of tax...
The Congressional Budget Office's midyear update of the economic and budget outlook, released in late August, provides an opportunity to glean new perspectives on the fiscal status of the federal government. In a prior article, we adjusted the baseline projections to provide more appropriate...
The Budget Outlook: Updates and Implications
The Congressional Budget Office (2004) has released new baseline budget projections, covering fiscal years 2005-2014. This article examines the baseline CBO projections, adjusts the official data in ways that more accurately reflect the current trajectory of tax and spending policies, and...
Key Thoughts on RSAs and LSAs
In his FY2005 budget, released Monday, President Bush proposes a set of new tax-preferred saving accounts (which were first presented in last year's budget). Under the Administration's proposal, two new types of individual accountscalled Lifetime Saving Accounts (LSAs) and Retirement Saving...
Searching for a Just Tax System
Despite the intensity of the debate over President Bush's tax policies, all political factions seem to agree that tax and spending programs should, on average, distribute economic resources from the rich to the poor. The arguments involve the amount of redistribution; only fringe groups ask...
Pensions, Health Insurance, and Tax Incentives
In 2001, Congress significantly expanded the scope of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA). This paper uses variation in IRA eligibility rules in the 1980s and 1990s to determine whether more widespread access to IRAs undermines traditional employer-sponsored pensions, especially 401(k)-type...
The Incredible Shrinking Budget for Working Families and Children
Programs for working families and children are scheduled to shrink rapidly over the next few years, squeezed between rising expenditures on programs for the elderly and declines in tax revenues. This scenario will play out even if only modest defense and international needs are factored into the...
Taxes and Income Volatility
In a tax system with increasing marginal tax rates, the tax increase from a boost to income is at least equal to the tax reduction from a decline in income and is larger if the change in income crosses a marginal tax bracket. As a result, people with volatile incomes may pay more tax than people...
HSAs Won't Cure Medicare's Ills
Here's one message from the new "bipartisan" Medicare bill being debated in Congress: low-income elderly people are having a hard time paying for their prescription drugs, so we need...another tax cut for rich people! Today's tax cut for rich people—health savings accounts (HSA)—has been all but...
Are Current Budget Deficits More Worrisome Than Those of the 1980s?
In this article from U.S. Fixed Income Monthly, Rudy Penner argues that the political response today to the deteriorating budget situation is much different from the 1980s. In the 1980s and early 1990s, Congress worked vigorously to restore fiscal responsibility. There is little evidence...
Tax Expenditures: Revenue Loss Versus Outlay Equivalents
Tax expenditures refer to the revenue losses attributable to provisions of the federal tax laws that deviate from a "normal" tax on income. Although there are debates over precisely what a tax expenditure is, many exclusions, deductions, credits, preferential rates, and deferrals of tax...
The Budget Outlook: Analysis and Implications
The Congressional Budget Office's midyear update of the economic and budget outlook, released in late August, provides an opportunity to glean new perspectives on the fiscal status of the federal government. In a prior article, we adjusted the baseline projections to provide more appropriate...