The administration today announced tariffs on imports from more than 80 countries, citing the US prohibition on goods made with forced labor. Rates will generally range from 10 percent to 12.5 percent. The new Section 301 tariffs will essentially replace other tariffs set to expire today and put in place after the US Supreme Court invalidated tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
These new tariffs (Figure 1) won’t fully replace revenue that would have been generated under IEEPA. TPC estimates they raise $581 billion over the budget window, about half of what IEEPA tariffs would have raised had they stayed in effect. The larger issue: the new tariffs seem likely to prolong trade policy uncertainty. Businesses facing uncertainty about future tariff rates and exemptions may become more cautious in their planning and investment decisions, which research shows can dampen economic activity.
FIGURE 1
The exemption list is long
The US has long prohibited imports produced with forced labor. The exemptions to tariffs imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 are broad, however. Over 4,000 items and just over 50 percent of the imports from targeted economies are exempt. The list spans chemical and pharmaceutical feedstocks, civil-aircraft supply chains, as well as the garment industry.
There are many tariff authorities
The 10 percent and 12.5 percent rates closely mirror Section 122 tariffs put in place after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. Earlier this week the administration set tariffs on imports from Canada, invoking Section 338 (of the Tariff Act of 1930) for the first time. The administration also recently announced an unexpected new tariff on Brazilian-origin imports based on an investigation from July 2025.
More than a dozen open investigations remain. Similar new tariffs may eventually be imposed on imports from trading partners including Vietnam, Germany, and Mexico. The United States Trade Representative is currently conducting Section 301 investigations into the trade practices of more than a dozen trading partners, a process that can result in new tariffs if the USTR concludes that a trading partner's policies are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden US commerce. The investigations into Vietnam, Germany, and Mexico are at various stages, and the administration retains broad discretion over timing and whether to impose tariffs, pause them, or negotiate alternative arrangements.
Uncertainty remains
Businesses may conclude that future tariff rates and exemptions are not stable and instead will reflect shifting economic and political priorities. If the evolution of tariff policy remains difficult to predict, businesses may grow reluctant to make substantial changes to their supply chains, preferring to wait and see whether the policy survives the next political cycle.
