Holiday seasons end, and income tax filing seasons begin soon after. But as predictable as the change in seasons are, taxpayers are venturing into uncertain territory in 2026.

Taxpayers might want to lower their expectations and prepare for unanswered phone calls to the IRS and delays in tax refunds, given these ingredients for a problem-prone filing season:  

• Being commissioner of the IRS is a full-time-plus job but is currently filled by the Secretary of Treasury. He’s backed up by a chief executive officer, but that person also has a very demanding second job: Social Security commissioner.
• Other leadership positions are empty or filled by acting heads.
• As of May, staff was down by 25 percent.
• The federal government shutdown sent nearly half the remaining staff home for over a month—right in the midst of preparation for the 2026 filing season.
• Funds are tight, with the IRS’s appropriations frozen at 2023 levels and most of the Inflation Reduction Act’s funding boost spent or taken back by Congress.   
• The IRS must implement the One Big Beautiful Budget Act (OBBBA), which contains several big provisions effective in 2025. 

Any one of these factors could disrupt the 2026 filing season. Together, they may create the “perfect storm.” But there’s a lot we still don’t know. Here are a few questions, and speculation about the answers.

When will the filing season begin?

Typically, the filing season begins in late January (January 27 in 2025) after months of preparation—a process made more challenging by the enactment of new tax laws. However, in 2021 the filing season was delayed until mid-February due to the pandemic. In some years, the filing season began on schedule, but late-passing legislation added or modified tax provisions, delaying processing of some returns.  

Fortunately, we are not experiencing a world-wide pandemic, and OBBBA was enacted in July. However, former IRS commissioners warn (paywall) that staff reductions (including the departure of 23 percent of the tech staff by May), the unfilled permanent leadership positions, and the complexities of OBBBA are difficult hurdles to clear.  

One encouraging sign for a timely opening of the 2026 filing season was the speedy release of guidance on the new tax advantages for tips, overtime, and car loans. Another was the IRS’s October 21 announcement that testing and preparation of filing season programs and related issues would continue during the shutdown. But even if the 2026 filing season begins on time, it’s still likely to be a bumpy road ahead.

Will the IRS answer taxpayers’ phone calls?

The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) deemed the 2025 filing season a success, despite disruptions in the agency. The IRS, for example, exceeded its goal of answering 85 percent of taxpayers’ calls asking about tax laws and their accounts through April. The IRS achieved this feat in part by delaying mission-critical employees’ buy-outs. 

But in 2026, it’s likely that many taxpayer calls will go unanswered. Earlier in 2025, the IRS projected a need for 3,500 more employees just to achieve the 85 percent target. After a hiring freeze ended in August, the IRS began a recruitment blitz for 2,150 customer service positions. The results are not public yet, but the shutdown likely slowed hiring and further reduced the appeal of government work. Moreover, the exodus of thousands of experienced staff left the IRS with fewer people to train the new hires.  

Many taxpayers will also face obstacles seeking help in person, with the closure of nine taxpayer assistance centers (out of 360), including several located in California, Pennsylvania, and New York. 

Yet, taxpayers may be seeking far more help this season. For example, because employers’ reporting requirements for tax-exempt tips and overtime (paywall) have been delayed for at least a year, workers will be on their own to identify and document which income qualifies for the exemptions. Moreover, many restaurant workers will experience sticker shock when they discover that the service fees they received in lieu of tips are not tax exempt. The IRS can expect calls for help on both those issues.

Will the IRS pay refunds on time? 

Given the IRS’s past investments in electronic filing, I’m hopeful that most taxpayers will receive their tax refunds quickly. But two groups may experience delays this year.

The first group is the six percent of people who file paper returns. The IRS launched a Paperless Processing Initiative in 2023 to speed their refunds by expanding scanning and digitization of paper returns by the 2025 filing season but failed to achieve that goal. This April, the IRS undertook a scaled-back “Zero Paper Initiative,” but TIGTA reported in September that even work on that project was running behind schedule. 

The other group are people who must send in more information to the IRS before receiving a refund because their returns were flagged during processing. With fewer IRS employees responding to taxpayer correspondence, their refunds are likely to be frozen for weeks. 

What are the chances for a smooth filing season?

Tax filing season is the one time during the year when all taxpayers interact with the IRS. To maintain goodwill, the IRS may find ways to keep taxpayers satisfied during the filing season. But with reduced staff and funding, it may have to shift resources from less visible but mission-critical tasks, such as investments in modernization that would improve taxpayers’ future IRS interactions. That approach might solve immediate challenges but at the expense of long-term enhancements of taxpayer services.