CBO pegs Trump tax bill at $2.4 trillion in new debt. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the House-passed version of President Trump’s broad tax and spending bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. As The New York Times reports, the estimate intensifies scrutiny of the bill’s $3.8 trillion in tax cuts and offsets, including cuts to Medicaid and food assistance.
Senate GOP weighs next steps on tax bill rewrite. Senate Republicans are still debating how to handle the House-passed bill as they race to meet a July 4 deadline to get the legislation to President Trump. Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) has not yet decided whether to hold a formal committee markup, leaving open the possibility of bypassing “regular order” in favor of a leadership-crafted substitute. Tax Notes reportsthat Republicans are considering making temporary business provisions permanent and revising the clean energy credit rollbacks. But tight vote margins and internal disagreements could complicate the path forward. “We’ve got to start making decisions here soon,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
OBBBA would revive a failed policy for EITC claimants. The House bill includes a provision to “precertify” eligibility for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)—a practice the IRS abandoned two decades ago after a pilot program proved both ineffective and burdensome. As TPC’s Janet Holtzblatt explains, the new version would require millions of low-income taxpayers to provide proof of eligibility before receiving their refund, even though past data show that post-filing controls are more cost-effective. IRS funding and staffing cuts, the measure could delay EITC refunds and risk denying eligible families access to a credit that has long been shown to reduce poverty and improve childhood outcomes.
Maryland data project sheds light on who misses out on tax credits. Despite offering one of the most generous state-level EITCs in the country, Maryland saw nearly 100,000 eligible households go without it in 2023. A new study by the Urban Institute and Maryland’s comptroller, reported by TPC, shows that about 18 percent of eligible filers didn’t claim the credit, especially in areas like Baltimore, Montgomery County, and Prince George’s County. Many non-claimants include ITIN filers, rural residents, and individuals facing language or documentation barriers. The state plans to use the findings to develop targeted outreach and filing assistance strategies.
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