A new Tax Policy Center analysis finds that raising the cap to $20,000 would increase the federal debt by about $225 billion from 2025-2034, assuming all expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are extended permanently. Nearly all the benefit would go to households making about $200,000 or more.

How will Trump navigate between those Republicans whose top priority is cutting the size of the federal government and those who quietly worry about the political fallout from slashing popular programs? 

In the second half of 2021, the federal government successfully advanced monthly Child Tax Credit (CTC) payments to millions of Americans. That six-month demonstration sparked an evolution of Minnesota’s state-level CTC, which will now include advanced payments.

Specific provisions of the TCJA have very different distributional effects depending on a household’s income level.