This blog has been updated to reflect announced tariff policies as of July 29, 2025. In addition, average tariff rates for ice cream and baked goods have been corrected in the text and in Figure 1. 

Tariffs on goods imported into the United States are scheduled to increase to extraordinarily high rates at the beginning of August, ranging from as high as 48 percent on women’s clothing, 41 percent on books, and even 33 percent on baked goods, according to our estimates. As a likely result, consumer prices will rise, employment and incomes in downstream industries will fall and profits will shrink. The value of retirement plans that hold stocks in these industries will also likely drop.

President Trump announced the increases to the tariff schedule on April 2. The next day, the S&P 500 fell nearly 5 percent. On April 9, the president reduced those rates to 10 percent for 90 days. That ‘pause’ was scheduled to end this Wednesday. The President stated that he will not be extending it, and on Sunday Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that rates would rise on August 1. The 10 percent rate for imports from China expires on August 12.

But even during the pause, tariffs had already risen to historically high rates.

Tariffs were much lower in recent years

Prior to April 2, US tariffs averaged less than 2 percent on goods from every country except China. From 2018 to this year, tariffs on goods from China faced an average rate of 10 percent, although the rates on some goods, such as electric vehicles imported from China, were as high as 100 percent. 

Average tariffs varied widely. Average tariffs on imported ice cream, for example, were nearly 15 percent in 2024. Both men and women’s clothing were subject to average tariff rates greater than 10 percent because a large share came from China, which are tariffed at higher rates. Other goods faced almost no tariffs at all, such as baked goods, beer, wine, books, dolls, toys, and games.

Tariffs during the pause 

During the pause, average tariff rates increased substantially compared to 2024. Tariffs will be significantly higher once the pause ends, even with the newly announced rates on imports from Vietnam, as Figure 1 illustrates.

For example, during the pause American consumers faced average tariffs on women and men’s clothing of 32 and 26 percent respectively. Once the pause ends, those will rise to 48 and 40 percent, based on the President’s announcements. Other anticipated changes:

• Average tariffs for purses will rise from 23 percent to 35 percent.
• Average ice cream tariffs will rise to 34 percent, up from 25 percent now.
• Rates on wine will jump to 17 percent, compared to 11 percent now. Tariffs on beer and ale will also rise to 36 percent on average, but they are already high at 31 percent.
• Books will be tariffed at about 40 percent, and dolls, toys, and games will be tariffed at nearly 50 percent—up from 25 and 27 percent during the pause.
• Tariffs on baked goods could go up to 33 percent. They already climbed to 27 percent, on average, during the pause.

And notably, the average rates during the pause and after its expiration are just the averages across all countries. The top tariff on men’s and women’s clothing will exceed 78 percent. Tariffs on purses could be as high as 90 percent, and tariffs on baked goods could reach 73 percent. Tariffs on beer will be as high as 79 percent. 

What can consumers expect?

Consumers might not feel the effect of increases to the high tariffs immediately. Companies have been stocking up before higher tariffs go into effect and developing other strategies to avoid or reduce their impact. For example, imported goods can be stored in bonded warehouses­—where they remain untaxed—waiting for rates to fall.

Eventually, however, it is very likely that these historically high tariffs will damage the economy. Such damage could be avoided if the December 2024 tariff schedule went back into effect.